Testing if the Final Fantasy Tactics “Chance to Hit” Predictions Are Lying

Background During battles, in the newly released video game "Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles", when you select an ability, and then target an enemy, the game tells you the "Chance of Success" of whether the ability will hit or miss. That way, you can change your mind, before confirming. But I don't trust it. … Continue reading Testing if the Final Fantasy Tactics “Chance to Hit” Predictions Are Lying →

Our Experience with the “KSK” Loot Distribution System (in World of Warcraft Classic)

Introduction I'm loot master for a casual raiding guild, in World of Warcraft's Season of Discovery. We've been trying out the "KSK" loot system for about 9 months, and I thought I'd share our experience with it. TLDR: the guild pretty much unanimously enjoys it, with not many complaints. It mainly has problems if you … Continue reading Our Experience with the “KSK” Loot Distribution System (in World of Warcraft Classic) →

Your Unpredictable Daily Schedule Might Be Wrecking Your Estimates

By using simulations on real data, we can discover how much an unpredictable schedule leads to unpredictable project length.